The Premier League title race is becoming predictable. Unless you support one of three, possibly four, teams your club will not win the Premier League. Unless you support another one or two certain other teams, you’re not going to qualify for the Champions League. And an argument could be made that finishing fourth is not an achievement at all, aside from the obvious financial gains.

So all this sounds like the Premier League is a pretty boring experience right? Well no, it isn’t.  That’s because the real excitement, action and drama lies in the relegation battle. The threat of relegation invokes a plethora of emotions where every kick and tackle has a consequence and the highs of league survival can be the sweetest nectar you’ll taste, countered by the depths of sorrow and woe that comes from relegation, and surely feeling something is better than the numb nothing of finishing 8th or 9th.

The real value comes from the fact no one is safe from the joyous struggle of the drop.  Huge, history rich teams have fallen from the top tier. Forest, Middlesbrough, Leeds, Ipswich, to name a few, have all tasted doom and not many return, so the safety mark is imperative. The chasse to the end of the rainbow. But what is that mark? Folklore has us believe that 40 points is the magical number. Reach that and you’ll live to fight another season.  But is that true…?

Here are the stats:

The Stat Attack:

 ·         Three times relegation has been decided on goal difference, 1995/96, 1997/98 and 2007/08

·         The ’40 point’ safety mark has only literally been the case three times

·         19 full premier 38 game seasons

·         Highest points total needed was 43 in 2002/03

·         Lowest points total needed was 31 in 2009/10

So what’s the magic number? Well the mean average of every minimum points total for all 38 game Premier League seasons is… *drum roll*

36.84210526

The 40 point mark is a myth, so mget 37 points and you’re golden. As of this post there are still 8 teams not safe, and you know what that means, plenty of excitement left in the season. 

OW & RG